Tunisia – Protests will intensify around 17 December parliamentary elections 14 December 2022 Stability
Securing IMF loan will do little to boost stability as major unions will reject implementation of reforms including public sector cuts 18 October 2022
Ratification of new constitution and crackdown on dissidents will somewhat boost stability for now 19 August 2022
Constitution will be approved via referendum but risks exacerbating political and economic discontent 8 July 2022
Region: North Africa President Saied will attempt to negotiate with parties over constitutional reform before any referendum, but talks likely to be protracted Stability
Region: North Africa Risk of major unrest will remain low in weeks following Tunisian president’s takeover, but will rise in event of protracted political stalemate Special Reports Stability
Region: North Africa Violent nationwide protest risk will persist for now, but harsh security response will likely calm unrest in coming weeks Stability
Region: North Africa Prime minister’s resignation highlights parliamentary divisions but Islamists and secular parties will form new coalition to avoid fresh elections Stability
Region: North Africa Ideological differences between largest parties following parliamentary polls ensure Ennahda-led coalition talks will be protracted Stability
Region: North Africa Islamist backing will secure presidency for independent candidate while Ennahda will emerge as largest parliamentary bloc in October polls Stability
Region: North Africa President’s death will allow Islamists to increase political influence but Ennahda party will moderate ambitions to avoid popular backlash Stability
Region: North Africa Formation of new party by Prime Minister’s supporters will hinder government efforts to pass reforms and address socioeconomic unrest Stability
Region: North Africa Public sector strikes will grow more frequent ahead of 2019 elections, but Prime Minister will provide limited concessions to prevent greater unrest Stability
