Mali – Withdrawal of British and Ivorian troops will pose significant challenges for UN mission over coming months 17 November 2022 Stability Terrorism
Mali – Niger’s suspension of petroleum exports will increase risk of Côte d’Ivoire cutting electricity supplies in coming weeks 7 October 2022
Côte d’Ivoire – Meeting of regional leaders unlikely to resolve crisis with Mali in coming weeks 15 September 2022
Mali – Increasing use of siege tactics by jihadists will worsen operational environment, despite recent removal of Beni blockade 9 September 2022
Region: North Africa Agreement to integrate 26,000 ex-rebels into national army will fail to improve security in coming year Extremism Stability
Region: North Africa Attack on Kati military base highlights jihadists’ willingness and ability to target Bamako Extremism Stability
Region: North Africa Mass killing in Diallassagou shows security will worsen amid French withdrawal Extremism Stability
Region: North Africa Mali’s withdrawal from G5 Sahel force will see regional bloc collapse in coming months but this is unlikely to significantly worsen security Extremism Geopolitics Stability
Region: North Africa Military coup leaders will seek to reach political settlement with opposition in effort to legitimise coup and ease external pressure in coming weeks Stability
Region: North Africa Anti-government protests increase risk of violence but backing from military and Western allies will ensure President Keita resists calls to step down Stability
Region: North Africa Islamic State attack highlights growing capabilities and risk of strikes in border areas, but JNIM will continue to pose greatest regional threat Terrorism
Region: North Africa Massacre of Fulani villagers shows that Government’s reliance on anti-Islamist self-defence groups will increase risk of ethnic violence Stability
Region: North Africa Islamic State in Greater Sahara losses will prevent it from posing credible threat to Western interests in Sahel in next six months Extremism
