Region: Middle East Gulf financial aid will allow Government to slow pace of contentious tax reforms, limiting likelihood of major protests in coming months Stability
Region: Middle East Abbas will look to stoke intra-Palestinian tensions in coming months in order to undermine ongoing Hamas-Israel talks Stability
Region: Middle East Iran’s evacuation from T4 airbase will limit tensions with Tel Aviv, but as Israeli air strikes will continue, risk of escalation to persist Geopolitics Stability
Region: North Africa End of alliance between President Essebsi and Ennahda will increase coalition instability and complicate passage of reforms Stability
Region: North Africa Proposed reforms will increase economic pressures on citizens, but are unlikely to trigger protests in capital for now Stability
Region: North Africa Tripoli ceasefire likely more enduring than prior truces but clashes will resume with any announcement of delay to December elections Stability
Region: South Asia Khan’s policy reversals risk undermining his popular support, but he will nonetheless maintain key backing from Islamists and military Stability
Region: South Asia Former Prime Minister Sharif’s release on bail will help strengthen PML-N, but opposition to Khan will remain divided Stability
Region: North Africa Tunisian ruling party’s decision to suspend Prime Minister’s membership will raise risk of political instability Stability
