10 October 2018 Syria Iran’s evacuation from T4 airbase will limit tensions with Tel Aviv, but as Israeli air strikes will continue, risk of escalation to persist Geopolitics Stability
10 October 2018 Syria Rebels’ ceasefire deal suggests Tahrir al-Sham will withdraw from buffer zone reducing risk of government offensive in Idlib this year Geopolitics Stability
20 April 2018 SomaliaUAE Termination of UAE military training programme in Somalia shows foreign competition in East Africa risks undermining security Geopolitics
20 April 2018 Mali Sophisticated strike on French and UN troops in Timbuktu indicates elevated risk of attacks in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger over Ramadan Geopolitics
19 January 2018 EgyptSudan Sudan-Egypt tensions will persist but are unlikely to trigger major shift in Khartoum’s regional alliances for now Geopolitics
05 January 2018 Somalia US suspension of military aid to Somalia and start of AMISOM troop drawdown will boost al-Shabab’s ability to re-take territory Geopolitics
20 September 2009 Middle EastUAE UAE decision to join maritime coalition to protect Gulf shipping will aim to maintain degree of influence over US response to Iranian provocations Geopolitics
