Region: Former Soviet Union Belarus – Minsk will not deploy forces to Ukraine, but Russia will continue to exploit Belarus territory for its war effort Geopolitics Stability
Region: Former Soviet Union Kazakhstan – Snap parliamentary election will ensure political continuity Stability
Region: Former Soviet Union Russia – Reshuffle of Russian military in Ukraine will bolster command structure and diminish role of PMCs Geopolitics Stability
Region: Former Soviet Union Azerbaijan – Pro-Russian sentiment of Nagorno-Karabakh leader risks elevating regional tensions Geopolitics
Region: Former Soviet Union Turkmenistan – Ashgabat’s increasing infrastructure needs will necessitate closer ties with China Economy Oil and Gas
Region: Former Soviet Union Ukraine – In spite of upcoming injection of new troops, Russia will struggle to make significant military gains in next 2-3 months Geopolitics
Region: Former Soviet Union Azerbaijan – Baku’s assertive approach to Nagorno-Karabakh will fail to disrupt EU energy engagement Geopolitics Reputation
Region: Former Soviet Union Kazakhstan – Russia’s role as key energy partner will pose ongoing sanctions risk Geopolitics Sanctions
Region: Former Soviet Union Russia – Social media users will continue to hinder Russian propaganda efforts Cyber Geopolitics
